Gulp: 90 Percent of Bettors Believe Hurricane Helene a Category 3 or Above at Landfall

Here in Miami Beach we are under a Tropical Storm Warning through Thursday but the Western Gulf Coast of Florida right up the panhandle is bracing for something far worse.

Helene had reached hurricane status by Wednesday morning and gamblers at Kalshi believe overwhelmingly (90%) it will reach Category 3 status before landfall some time Thursday.  50% believed the storm would make it to Category 4 strength.

The National Hurricane Center said that Helene would rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall while driving winds of 120-125 mph − and warned that "upward adjustments to the forecast intensity" could be required as the storm closes in. AccuWeather forecasters were predicting Helene could briefly reach Category 4 strength while still in the Gulf, which would mean maximum sustained winds ranging between 130 and 156 mph.

The highest landfall probability was somewhere along the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle − possibly the Big Bend area, the curve of Florida's peninsula around the Gulf of Mexico − late Thursday, forecasters said. Near where Helene makes landfall, general rainfall of 8-12 inches is forecast, with 2 feet of rain possible in isolated areas.

Helene is now the fifth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season. On average, the 5th Atlantic hurricane usually forms on September 28.

Kalshi notes that the storm's classification is determined by its wind speed, with tropical depressions having sustained winds below 39 mph, tropical storms having winds between 39 and 73 mph, and hurricanes having winds of 74 mph or higher. The National Hurricane Center tracks tropical waves and issues advisories, watches, and warnings based on the storm's intensity and potential impact.